Most Afghans see Karzai as winnable candidate: survey

By Anwar Iqbal
Monday, 17 Aug, 2009 | 05:05 AM PST |
WASHINGTON: Afghan President Hamid Karzai is most likely to continue to rule his war-ravaged country for next five years as the majority in Afghanistan sees him as a winnable, although not necessarily the best, candidate for Thursday’s election.

Mr Karzai’s alliances with regional power-brokers and his origins as a Pashtun, the biggest Afghan ethnic community, have placed him in a strong position despite widespread public dissatisfaction with the government.

A survey carried out by the US-funded International Republican Institute shows Mr Karzai leading a field of three dozen candidates with 44 per cent, against 26 per cent for his closest rival. If neither wins 50 per cent, a run-off will be needed.

Interestingly, the survey also showed India as the most popular country in Afghanistan, with 24 per cent backing good relations with New Delhi, followed by 19 per cent of the US, 17 per cent for Iran, 12 per cent for Tajikistan and eight per cent for China

The Taliban and Pakistan were the most unpopular, receiving minus 49 and minus 50 per cent support respectively.

President Karzai’s support increased during the campaign period; however, not enough to claim a first-ballot victory. Candidates like Ramazan Bashardost and Ashraf Ghani have experienced an increase in support compared to a similar poll in May.

Former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah’s support increased most dramatically in the July 2009 poll to 26 per cent, a nearly five-fold increase from May.

Fifty-six per cent of respondents believe Mr Karzai deserves re-election, while 38 per cent oppose his re-election bid to the presidency.

When asked opinions on the leadership quality of major political figures, Hamid Karzai rated 64 per cent favourable, Mr Abdullah 48 per cent, and Ashraf Ghani 34 per cent. Those rating most unfavourable were Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq at minus 13 per cent, Abdul Rassul Sayyaf minus 16 per cent and Gen Rashid Dostum minus 26 per cent.

When asked to choose who they viewed most favourably, Mr Karzai ranked first with 39 per cent, followed by Mr Abdullah at 20 per cent, Mr Bashardost at eight per cent and Mr Ghani at five per cent.

When respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the election were held today, 44 per cent said they would vote for Mr Karzai, up from 31 per cent in May but still short of a first-ballot victory.

Mr Abdullah ranked second with 26 per cent up from seven per cent. Mr Bashardost ranked at 10 per cent up from three per cent and Mr Ghani doubled his support to six per cent.

Fifty-seven per cent of respondents are certain in their support for a candidate, while 32 per cent expressed probable support. Eight per cent were uncertain of their choice. Forty-five per cent of respondents thought that regardless of who they supported, Mr Karzai would be re-elected.

Fifty-eight per cent of respondents thought a unified Mr Abdullah and Mr Ghani would be a good option for Afghanistan.

Security, at 30 per cent, ranked as the top priority in issues to be addressed by the next president of Afghanistan, a drop from 42 per cent in the May poll.

The economy and jobs ranked second at 22 per cent, up from 12 per cent in May. The issue of reconstruction and development was at 11 per cent up from seven per cent in the previous poll.

Twenty-seven per cent of respondents rated Mr Karzai’s performance as president very good, up from 12 per cent in May 2009. One-third of respondents classified Mr Karzai’s presidency as good while 18 per cent classified it as poor.

When asked whether Mr Karzai should remain president for the next five years, a small majority of respondents (51 per cent) would give him another chance while 44 per cent were of the opinion that someone new should take the helm.